Market Perspectives
Major U.S. equity indexes declined for a third consecutive week as the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting volatility in oil markets continued to dominate investor sentiment. Crude prices swung sharply as markets weighed the risk of prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global energy flows — against intermittent signs of potential diplomatic de-escalation. At the same time, concerns around stress in private credit markets and renewed uncertainty in global trade policy added to the cautious tone. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led declines, falling 1.99%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.60% — extending its losing streak to five weeks. The Nasdaq Composite proved relatively resilient but still declined 1.26%. Fixed income markets also reflected the inflationary implications of the conflict. U.S. Treasury yields continued to climb, rising more than 30 basis points since hostilities began two weeks ago as investors reassessed the outlook for energy prices and Federal Reserve policy. Across the Atlantic, markets proved somewhat more resilient. The pan- European STOXX Europe 600 slipped just 0.47%, with Germany’s DAX down 0.61%, France’s CAC 40 falling 1.03%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB edged up 0.37%. The UK’s FTSE 100 lost 0.23%. European government bond yields tracked the global move higher, reaching levels not seen since 2022. In Asia, the downbeat tone persisted, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 declining 2.24% and China’s Hang Seng slipping 1.12%. Looking ahead, investors will parse policy signals from the Fed, BOJ, BOE and ECB — all expected to keep rates on hold — but the real driver of sentiment remains geopolitics. With energy markets, inflation expectations and risk premiums increasingly tied to developments in Iran, does the recent repricing of global risk assets have further to run?
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BONDS & MACROECONOMICS
U.S. Treasury yields continued to climb, rising more than 30 basis points since hostilities began two weeks ago as investors reassessed the outlook for energy prices and Federal Reserve policy. European government bond yields tracked the global move higher, reaching levels not seen since 2022.
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