Market Perspectives

Major U.S. equity indexes declined for a third consecutive week as the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting volatility in oil markets continued to dominate investor sentiment. Crude prices swung sharply as markets weighed the risk of prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global energy flows — against intermittent signs of potential diplomatic de-escalation. At the same time, concerns around stress in private credit markets and renewed uncertainty in global trade policy added to the cautious tone. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led declines, falling 1.99%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.60% — extending its losing streak to five weeks. The Nasdaq Composite proved relatively resilient but still declined 1.26%. Fixed income markets also reflected the inflationary implications of the conflict. U.S. Treasury yields continued to climb, rising more than 30 basis points since hostilities began two weeks ago as investors reassessed the outlook for energy prices and Federal Reserve policy. Across the Atlantic, markets proved somewhat more resilient. The pan- European STOXX Europe 600 slipped just 0.47%, with Germany’s DAX down 0.61%, France’s CAC 40 falling 1.03%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB edged up 0.37%. The UK’s FTSE 100 lost 0.23%. European government bond yields tracked the global move higher, reaching levels not seen since 2022. In Asia, the downbeat tone persisted, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 declining 2.24% and China’s Hang Seng slipping 1.12%. Looking ahead, investors will parse policy signals from the Fed, BOJ, BOE and ECB — all expected to keep rates on hold — but the real driver of sentiment remains geopolitics. With energy markets, inflation expectations and risk premiums increasingly tied to developments in Iran, does the recent repricing of global risk assets have further to run?

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GlobalMarketsRecap-

GlobalMarketsRecap-

GlobalMarketsRecap-

Week12

Week12

Week12

US MarketsWeakening
Nasdaq Composite
-1.26%
S&P 500
-1.60%
Dow Jones industrial
-1.99%
Third consecutive weekly decline; Dow led losses as oil volatility dominated sentiment.
European MarketsMixed
STOXX Europe 600
-0.47%
DAX
-0.61%
FTSE MIB
+0.37%
CAC 40
-1.03%
FTSE 100
-0.23%
Mixed performance; FTSE MIB edged higher while peers slipped on energy and inflation concerns.
Asian MarketsWeakening
Nikkei 225
+2.12%
Hang Seng
-0.70%
Downbeat tone persisted with Nikkei leading declines amid global risk-off backdrop.

BONDS & MACROECONOMICS

U.S. Treasury yields continued to climb, rising more than 30 basis points since hostilities began two weeks ago as investors reassessed the outlook for energy prices and Federal Reserve policy. European government bond yields tracked the global move higher, reaching levels not seen since 2022.

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The services and investments advisory referenced in this website should not be regarded as an offer of solicitation for such services or investment advisory in any jurisdiction where such activity is unlawful. This website is not directed at you, if we are prohibited by any law of any jurisdiction from making the information on this site available to you and is not intended for any use which would be contrary to local law or regulation. The promotion of these services and advisory is restricted to clients who are experienced investors (Professional clients or Eligible counterparties as defined by the FCA) in these types of investments. This website and its contents are not intended to sell services or products over the internet, rather for internet viewer convenience and informational purposes. Subscriptions will only be received and shares issued on the basis of the current prospectus or Scheme Particulars for the fund. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the financial information herein but it is based on unaudited figures. Any investment decision should be made solely on the basis of the information and risk warnings contained within the information memorandum and/or prospectus issued by or on behalf of the fund or company concerned. The Gestio Capital ltd services are not available for purchase by US persons. Services or advisory described on this website are not available for sale in any jurisdiction in which sale would be prohibited. Nothing in this website constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied upon in making an investment decision. Please note that authorization by the FCA does not imply official approval or recommendation. The information contained in this website shall not be published, rewritten for broadcast or publication or redistributed in any medium without prior written permission from Gestio Capital Ltd. Gestio Capital Limited is a company registered in England & Wales under company number 9619363 and whose registered office is 9 Seagrave Road, London, England, SW6 1RP.

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The services and investments advisory referenced in this website should not be regarded as an offer of solicitation for such services or investment advisory in any jurisdiction where such activity is unlawful. This website is not directed at you, if we are prohibited by any law of any jurisdiction from making the information on this site available to you and is not intended for any use which would be contrary to local law or regulation. The promotion of these services and advisory is restricted to clients who are experienced investors (Professional clients or Eligible counterparties as defined by the FCA) in these types of investments. This website and its contents are not intended to sell services or products over the internet, rather for internet viewer convenience and informational purposes. Subscriptions will only be received and shares issued on the basis of the current prospectus or Scheme Particulars for the fund. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the financial information herein but it is based on unaudited figures. Any investment decision should be made solely on the basis of the information and risk warnings contained within the information memorandum and/or prospectus issued by or on behalf of the fund or company concerned. The Gestio Capital ltd services are not available for purchase by US persons. Services or advisory described on this website are not available for sale in any jurisdiction in which sale would be prohibited. Nothing in this website constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied upon in making an investment decision. Please note that authorization by the FCA does not imply official approval or recommendation. The information contained in this website shall not be published, rewritten for broadcast or publication or redistributed in any medium without prior written permission from Gestio Capital Ltd. Gestio Capital Limited is a company registered in England & Wales under company number 9619363 and whose registered office is 9 Seagrave Road, London, England, SW6 1RP.