Market Perspectives
U.S. equity markets finished the week higher, with several indices pushing to fresh record highs, as broadly positive economic data, continued strength in artificial intelligence-linked stocks and supportive earnings helped offset persistent uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led gains, rising 1.5%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.55%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.44%. Bonds declined as markets interpreted the midweek extension of the ceasefire as reducing the likelihood of a near-term resolution. Across the Atlantic, sentiment deteriorated more visibly. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 fell 2.54%, with defensives such as utilities and telecoms outperforming. Losses were broad-based, with Germany’s DAX down 2.32%, Italy’s FTSE MIB falling 2.48%, France’s CAC 40 declining 3.17% and the UK’s FTSE 100 losing 2.70%. In Asia, performance was mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 2.12% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged 0.70% lower. Looking ahead, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed and the geopolitical stalemate showing little sign of resolution, attention turns to a pivotal week for both earnings and policy. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platforms report on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday. On the policy front, the April Federal Reserve meeting — widely expected to be Jerome Powell’s last as Chair — is unlikely to deliver a rate move, though the risk lies in a more hawkish tone as markets assess the inflationary impact of the Iran war. Focus will then shift to the PCE deflator and first-quarter GDP data. Will the persistence of geopolitical risk begin to expose deeper cracks in global markets?
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BONDS & MACROECONOMICS
Bonds declined as markets interpreted the midweek extension of the ceasefire as reducing the likelihood of a near-term resolution. Risk-off in Europe contrasted with a tech-led bid in the US.
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